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Predictions for this Year's Oscar Nominations in All 24 Categories

See the source imageI usually do not make my predictions for the Oscar nominations public because I usually do not do a very good job at predicting them. The branches of the Academy who vote on who should be nominated for their categories can be very odd, with their bizarre rules and decision-making processes, and thus, there are always quite a few shockers when the nominations are finally announced. The only reason I decided to post my predictions this year is that last year I correctly predicted the Amy Adams snub for Arrival and I feel like I didn't get enough props for that. They are probably way off and I might change my mind on some things between now and Tuesday morning, but here they are:

Best Picture:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Shape of Water
Get Out
Lady Bird
Dunkirk
If six, Call Me By Your Name
If seven, The Post
If eight, I, Tonya
If nine, Darkest Hour

Remember that the Best Picture category can have anywhere from five to ten nominees. Ever since this rule has been in place, there have always been either 8 or 9 nominees, and I do not think that will change this year. I am confident about the top five. After that, Call Me By Your Name and The Post are very likely, and probably either I, Tonya or Darkest Hour gets in too. I suppose there is a possibility of The Florida Project pulls a Room and gets Best Picture and Best Director nominations after getting shut out of the Producers Guild Awards and Directors Guild Awards, but I don't see that happening. 


Best Director:
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Jordan Peele, Get Out

These five make sense to me because these five movies are the ones that seem to have the most support. As I mentioned above, there is a possibility of a Sean Baker surprise, but I doubt it.

Best Actress:
Saorise Ronan, Lady Bird
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sally Hawkins,  The Shape of Water
Meryl Streep, The Post

These five women have felt like the nominees for a couple of months now. The one on shakiest ground as of now is probably Meryl because she missed key precursor nominations at SAG and BAFTA. Since the inception of the SAG awards, she has never missed both SAG and BAFTA noms and still gotten an Oscar nom. But I think she can do it this time for both because of the timeliness of her film and because she's Meryl Streep and the Academy loves her. A tiny part of me thinks that if anyone misses here it would be Sally Hawkins a la Amy Adams in Arrival. But I'm not courageous enough to predict that, partly because who would I replace her with? Jessica Chastain in Molly's Game or Michelle Williams in All the Money in the World probably.

Best Actor:
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

This is the category where my prediction differs the most from what everyone else is saying. Most people are predicting Daniel Day-Lewis to be nominated for his supposedly final performance in Phantom Thread. And although I personally loved the movie, I'm predicting PTA's latest to snubbed everywhere except Best Score. In his place, I have Denzel Washington, who, even though his film didn't land the way it was expected to, earned nominations from the Critics Choice Awards, the Golden Globes, and the SAG Awards. I guess Tom Hanks is a possibility for The Post, but I can't see it happening after Hanks got snubbed for Captain Phillips, Sully, and Bridge of Spies, plus The Post is really all about Meryl.

Best Supporting Actor:
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name

I'd say Rockwell and Dafoe are the safest bets. Harrelson will probably get in because I suspect voters will love that movie, same with Jenkins and Shape of Water. The fifth spot is the one I am having doubts about. Hammer got Critics Choice and Golden Globe nominations, so he makes sense, but his miss at SAG and his film's inability to get a Best Ensemble nomination at SAG has me doubting his support from actors. SAG nominee Steve Carrell also got a Golden Globe nomination (albeit in the Best Actor category), but I can't really see Oscar voters rewarding that performance. Another possibility is Christopher Plummer in All the Money in the World, who got mentions at the Golden Globes and BAFTA. The Globe nomination seemed at first like a gimmick nomination because of how little time there was between reshoots of All the Money in the World and its release, but then BAFTA happened and forced me to take him a little more seriously. BAFTA voters are demographically similar to Academy members. I don't think he shows up Tuesday morning, but you never know.

Best Supporting Actress:
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Janney and Metcalf are in. Hunter seems very likely. Mary J. Blige got most of the relevant precursor nominations, but I am predicting the Academy's acrimonious relationship with Netflix will hobble Mudbound's chances. A lot of people are not predicting Hong Chau, given that Downsizing was a huge flop. My theory on that is that if Academy members see the film, there is no way she doesn't get nominated and that they'll watch their Downsizing screener despite the bad buzz because of how much they love Alexander Payne (every one of his films since his first has gotten at least one nomination). Octavia Spencer doesn't have a lot to do in The Shape of Water, but they love her and she got nominated for Hidden Figures, which was much less of a contender than The Shape of Water will be. 

Best Original Screenplay:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Lady Bird
Get Out
The Big Sick
The Post

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Call Me By Your Name
Molly's Game
The Disaster Artist
Mudbound
The Beguiled

Best Cinematography:
Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
The Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
Call Me By Your Name

Best Costume Design:
Beauty and the Beast
Murder on the Orient Express
The Greatest Showman
The Shape of Water
The Beguiled

Best Film Editing:
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Get Out
Baby Driver
I, Tonya

Best Makeup and Hair:
I, Tonya
Wonder
Darkest Hour

Best Production Design:
The Shape of Water
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Darkest Hour
The Greatest Showman

Best Original Score:
The Shape of Water
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Post
Victoria & Abdul

Best Original Song
This is Me - The Greatest Showman
Remember Me - Coco
The Mystery of Love - Call Me By Your Name
Stand Up for Something - Marshall
I Don't Wanna Live Forever - Fifty Shades Darker

Best Sound Editing:
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Baby Driver
Wonder Woman
War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Sound Mixing:
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Baby Driver
The Greatest Showman

Best Visual Effects:
Blade Runner 2049
War for the Planet of the Apes
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Okja

Best Animated Feature:
Coco
The Breadwinner
Loving Vincent
The Boss Baby
Mary and the Witch's Flower

Best Documentary:
Jane
Faces Places
City of Ghosts
Last Men in Aleppo 
Icarus

Best Foreign Film:
In the Fade
The Square
Foxtrot
A Fantastic Woman
Loveless

Best Animated Short:
Lou
Dear Basketball
In a Heartbeat
Cradle
Negative Space

Best Documentary Short:
Alone
Ten Meter Tower
Heroin(e)
116 Cameras
Edith+Eddie

Best Live Action Short:
DeKalb Elementary
All of Us
The Silent Child
Rise of a Star
My Nephew Emmett

The Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 22.
Share YOUR predictions in the comments below! Thanks for Reading!

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