Skip to main content

Oscars 2016: Who Will Win?

2016 Oscars Predictions

The Oscars are approaching fast and that means it's time to predict the winners. Here's how I think the major races will turn out.



Best Supporting Actor:

The winner should be Mark Rylance.  The great stage actor delivered one of the best performances of the year in Bridge of Spies, understated and subtle, it was completely unexpected from an actor who collected numerous Tony Awards for his over-the-top stage performances. With that being said, he's going to lose to Sylvester Stallone for playing Rocky again.
Predicted winner: Sylvester Stallone, Creed


Best Supporting Actress:

This is a tricky category because two of the nominees (Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara) are lead actresses. This sometimes works, as lead actresses have won in this category in the past (Jennifer Connelly, Catherine Zeta Jones, etc.), so it seems likely that Alicia Vikander will take this one for her role in The Danish Girl. There's a small possibility that Steve Jobs' Kate Winslet may upset. 
Predicted Winner: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Best Actor:

It's going to be Leonardo DiCaprio. The grueling production of The Revenant seems like enough for the Academy to reward him. Whether or not it's a good performance seems irrelevant at this point. 
Predicted Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Best Actress:

This year's true Best Actress would be Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn. If the audience didn't care about the main character, Brooklyn would be tedious, but it's one of the best movies of the year, and that's largely due to Ronan. But the Oscar will probably go to Brie Larson for her heartbreaking performance in Room. She's been delivering great performances for years, so it's nice to see her get some recognition. 
Predicted Winner: Brie Larson, Room

Best Director:

Alejandro G. Iñárritu will likely become the third director in Oscar history to win Best Director back-to-back, after John Ford and Joseph L. Mankiewicz. The much-discussed troubled shoot of The Revenant is probably going to be seen by voters as making the finished film all the more of an achievement. 
Predicted Winner: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant

Best Picture:

The three major predictors (The SAG, DGA, and PGA) all went to different films, so this category is harder to predict than in past years. The films that have a chance of winning are The Revenant, Spotlight, and The Big Short. 

The Revenant has the most nominations of any film this year, with 12. Spotlight and The Big Short only have 6 and 5, respectively. The last time a film won with less than 7 nominations was The Departed almost a decade ago. But, The Revenant does not have a screenplay nomination. The last time a film won without a screenplay nomination was Titanic in 1998 (and before that was The Sound of Music in 1966). 

Aside from Best Picture, The Revenant will most likely win Actor, Director, and Cinematography, maybe others. Spotlight and Big Short will win their screenplay categories, but probably nothing else. The last time a film won Best Picture and only one other Oscar was in 1953 with The Greatest Show on Earth (perhaps the worst film to ever win Best Picture).

So does all this mean The Revenant's going to win? Maybe, but when was the last time a film as gory and brutal as The Revenant won? Certainly not recently. The other two feel more like past winners in this sense, and also have "important" subjects, and that never hurts either.

Also never has a director directed consecutive Best Pictures, and Iñárritu directed Birdman (a film I didn't even like that much), so Revenant winning would be a first. 

What also must be considered is the bizarre voting system used by the Academy for this category. They use a preferential ballot, where voters have to rank the films first, second, third, etc. This could work against Revenant, as it is a very divisive film. A film like that is either your favorite or your least favorite, so it won't get many second and third place votes. Spotlight and Big Short have been generally well-liked by most, so either film could presumably win by having the most second place votes.

Ultimately, there are things working for and against each film, I'll say Revenant, but wouldn't be surprised by Big Short, or maybe Spotlight.
Predicted Winner: The Revenant

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

The New "Charlie's Angels" Reboot Doesn't Feel Like "Charlie's Angels," For Better and Worse: Review

If you listen closely, you can hear the sound of Hollywood execs hard at work at rebooting your favorite franchise. In an age where IP is more valuable than any movie star or original idea, everything from the past will eventually get slapped with a new coat of paint and trotted out once more for the consumption of modern audiences. This week's edition: Charlie's Angels. I'm not opposed to reboots and remakes in general, but when this reboot was announced, I couldn't help but give a vaguely melancholic shrug. It really cannot be overstated how much I loved the 2000 version and its 2003 sequel as a child. My obsession with those films led to countless viewings, a love for the original 1970s TV show, and a lifelong standom of Lucy Liu, Cameron Diaz, and my all-time fav Drew Barrymore. If Hollywood so desperately wanted to squeeze new life out of this franchise, why not do a sequel to those movies and bring back Lucy, Cameron and Drew? I would have been first in line to b…

Drew Barrymore is Getting a Daytime Talk Show. Here's Why I Hate It

When Hollywood stopped making big screen romantic comedies after the '00s, there was an entire group of actresses who were forced to pivot their careers to something else. Kate Hudson, Sandra Bullock, Cameron Diaz, Jennifer Aniston, Reese, and Drew Barrymore were all members of this group. Today's news that Drew Barrymore's daytime talk show has been picked up and will premiere in fall 2020 has got me thinking about the career choices these actresses have made since the death of their genre. Reese moved into prestige vehicles on the big screen and mainly on the small screen these days. Sandra Bullock appears in far fewer movies than she did fifteen years ago, but when she does pop up it's mostly in prestige fare. Cameron Diaz retired from acting entirely. Kate Hudson, well I already wrote a thing about what Kate Hudson did. Nearly all of these women have started lifestyle brands or companies, following in the footsteps of the Empress of Celebrity Lifestyle Brands, Gwyn…

Best of TV 2016

The Ten Best TV Shows of 2016Here are the best televisions of 2016:

10. Stranger Things (Netflix)

 The Netflix series quickly became a pop culture phenomenon when it launched on the streaming site in July. Starring a fantastic Winona Ryder as the mother of a missing child, the series pays homage to numerous sci-fi films from the 1980s. Good writing, smart pacing, and a satisfying level of suspense makes Stranger Things a worthwhile binge whether you get the references or not.