Skip to main content

Oscars 2019: Who Will Win?

2019 Oscar Preview and Predictions


The conversation around this year's Oscars has been more focused on the show itself rather than who the winners will be. After the outcry from the film community over changes that the Academy planned to make the ceremony last only three hours, the Academy has capitulated on most of those issues. All 24 categories will be shown live on TV, last year's acting winners will return as presenters, and all nominated songs will be performed. But somehow the show will still be only three hours. [Side note: Why are the producers obsessed with getting the show to be three hours? Do they think it being long is contributing to declining ratings? Well, the ceremony hasn't clocked in at under three hours since 1972. The show's been long for a lot longer than ratings have been going down. So let the Oscars be long. They should be long - there's a lot to do!]

Another aspect of this show that has been generating more buzz than the actual nominees is the controversy over the host. Apparently, the Academy had an extremely difficult time convincing someone to take the job this year, as it is seen as a lot of risk with little to no reward. Eventually, the Academy thought they'd solve their problem by tapping Kevin Hart to host, until people pointed out that he maybe wasn't the best fit. So, there will be no host for this year's ceremony. The Oscars have been emcee-less a handful of times throughout their 91-year history, most recently in 1989. It will be interesting to see if the show will have any sort of comedic or thematic throughline without a host.

As for the awards themselves, there are a couple of places were surprises might happen, which is always exciting. I offer my predictions below in all 24 categories and break down some of the major ones. To see a complete list of nominees in each category, click here


Best Picture:

This category isn't as obvious as it has been in past years and there are a number of contenders. What I have been noticing in the years since the Academy has changed the way Best Picture is voted on in 2009 (they made it an instant runoff vote system that is complicated to explain so I'm not going to!), is that there are two types of Oscar years; years where the Best Picture winner claims multiple top prizes - including Best Director - and years when the Best Picture winner might win an acting or screenplay award, but not Best Director. Years when Birdman and The Shape of Water won represent the former category and years when Argo, Spotlight, and Moonlight won represent the latter. Which type will this year be? I don't know. But I suspect that it'll be the type where one movie wins a lot, and I suspect that movie will be Roma. But if it's the second type of year, then I can see Green Book being the winner. There's also a small possibility Blackkklansman will benefit from the convoluted voting process, which requires voters to rank all the nominees in this category by preference. Whether Academy members vote prefer Roma or Green Book, I can't see them not liking Blackkklansman
Prediction: Roma

Best Actress:

Can we take a minute to just appreciate what a great group of nominees this is? Glenn Close? Amazing. Lady Gaga? Iconic. Olivia Colman? Brilliant. Melissa McCarthy? Incredible. Close is the most-nominated living actor to have yet to win (this is her seventh try), so I think her time has finally come. It'll be a richly deserved win, and if her Golden Globes acceptance speech is any indication, it'll be one of those classic Oscar moments we all love. But if she doesn't win, for some reason,  she'll probably lose to Colman, who won the BAFTA. 
Prediction: Glenn Close, The Wife

Best Actor:

Bradley Cooper totally changed his physical appearance, lowered his voice an entire octave, and learned how to play the guitar to transform himself into Jackson Maine. Rami Malek lip-synched and wore fake teeth. Guess who the Academy is going to go for?
Prediction: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Supporting Actress:

People love Regina King. She's a great actress and she's won Emmys for TV shows that nobody has ever heard of. But she didn't even get nominated by the SAG Awards and the BAFTA Awards, so I guess there's a chance she'll lose. But to who? If voters are really crazy about Roma, I can see Marina de Tavira winning. Wouldn't that be surprising? 
Prediction: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Supporting Actor:

All of the relevant precursors have gone to Mahershala Ali, so I guess he'll win. But he won only two years ago for Moonlight, so maybe voters will feel like it's too soon to reward him again? In that case, Richard E. Grant could upset. I would love to see that happen because I thought Can You Ever Forgive Me? was better than 88% of the Best Picture nominees, but it most likely won't happen.
Prediction: Mahershala Ali, Green Book


Best Director:

This is Spike Lee's first nomination for directing, and many would like to see him win, but there's almost no possibility of that happening. The winner will be Alfonso Cuaron, who will claim his second Best Director Oscar for Roma. He previously won for directing Gravity
Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Best Adapted Screenplay: Blackkklansman

Best Original Screenplay: Green Book 

Best Cinematography: Roma

Best Costume Design: The Favourite

Best Film Editing: Vice

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Vice

Best Production Design: The Favourite

Best Original Score: Mary Poppins Returns

Best Original Song: "Shallow", A Star is Born

Best Sound Editing: First Man

Best Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody 

Best Visual Effects: First Man

Best Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Documentary Feature: RBG

Best Foreign-Language Film: Roma

Best Animated Short: Bao

Best Documentary Short: Period. End of Sentence

Best Live Action Short: Marguerite 


The Oscars air February 24th on ABC.

Who do you think the winners will be? Let me know in the comments below? Thanks for reading!

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

The Muppets Bring Humor and Heart to the Hollywood Bowl in "The Muppets Take the Bowl": Review

The Muppets are in  a bit of weird situation. Six years ago they made their big comeback with a smash hit movie, but since then they have had another flop movie and a short-lived television show. The franchise is still figuring out what iteration of itself works best for a 21st-century audience, and if it's not movies and it's not TV, what is it? It seems like they are trying to answer that question by putting on a rare live performance, happening September 8-10th at the Hollywood Bowl. Like the good Muppet fan I am, I was on hand opening night in eager anticipation of finding out what a live Muppet show looks like. It looked like, well, what you might expect it to look like. Puppeteers dressed in all black performing their characters right before our very eyes. That is when there wasn't a platform or podium they could hide behind, which there occasionally was during the course of the two-and-a-half hour show. While it certainly isn't how we are used to experienc

"My Mind Turns Your Life Into Folklore": Why Taylor Swift's "Gold Rush" Is a Song About Songwriting

"My mind turns your life into folklore." That line, from the song "Gold Rush," is the only time the word "folklore" is spoken on either of Taylor Swift's 2020 records, Folklore and Evermore , the latter of which is where the song appears. The presence of the line indicates that "Gold Rush" is a pivotal song not only in Swift's lockdown duology, but in her maturation as a songwriter.  Swift's early albums often drew heavily from her own experiences, with fans and the media scouring her lyrics for clues as to which ex-boyfriend her numerous breakup songs referred. Her tumultuous dating life made as many headlines as her music, in part because it informed so much of the music. The discourse was often ridiculous and reductive, and thankfully, that period of her career is over (Swift has been in a relationship with the actor Joe Alwyn since 2016).  Both of her 2020 albums have their fair share of autobiographical songs, but they also see

Every Julie London Album Ranked

Last month, for school I had to write a long research paper about 17th century Flemish flower paintings, which was a bit outside my comfort zone. So, I needed writing music and a lot of it. After listening a bit to Amazon Music's playlist "Big Band Christmas", I came across the song "Warm in December" by Julie London. It was a name I'd heard before, but I knew next to nothing about her. But the song was good enough to send me to Wikipedia, where I learned that London released 30 albums in the 14 years between 1955 and 1969. Most of the material she recorded was standards, the kind I spent most of 2020 listening to, so I decided that listening to London's entire discography (in order) would be perfect for writing my paper. Now, the paper's done ( I got an A), and I'm left with many, many thoughts about Julie London.  A film actress before releasing her first album, Julie is Her Name , in 1955, London had a mega-hit single with "Cry Me a River